The South's Population Boom
A look at some recent data from the Census Bureau about population growth trends for the South and America's other regions.
The U.S. Census Bureau is in the process of updating methodologies and releasing new population estimates. One of their first big releases highlights how much the growth in the country’s metro areas is outpacing growth elsewhere.
Some technical notes. The estimates use data on births, deaths and immigration (in particular international migration under the new methodology) to generate population change stats. The most recent report lays out trends for counties, metropolitan areas and micropolitan areas.
The estimates reveal that between 2023 and 2024 the population in America’s metro areas grew by 3.1 million people, approximately 1%. And the metro areas that experienced the most growth were located in the South. But before getting into those details, let’s lay out some context.
Most Populous Counties
A big portion of recent population growth has been concentrated in Southern states. And if you spend even a second on social media platforms in those states, you’ll see how the reality backs up these numbers. And also get a glimpse at how unhappy a lot of folks are about this trend. Still, though, areas outside of the region claim the titles for being most populous.
Only three of the Top 10 most populous counties in America are located in Southern states. The Southern counties accounted for 24% (10,045,179) of the collective population for the Top 10 in 2020 and 25% (10,503,791) in 2024. The remaining counties were primarily located in southern California but also included counties in Arizona, Illinois, and New York.
Harris County (Houston, TX), Miami-Dade County (Miami, FL) and Dallas County (Dallas, TX) are the Southern counties who made the list. Of them, Harris is the largest by a wide margin and has experienced some of the most significant population growth. Estimates place Harris County’s population at 4,731,433 in 2020 and 5,009,302 in 2024. By comparison, Miami-Dade County’s 2024 population was 2,838,461 and Dallas County’s 2024 population was 2,656,028.
Top 10 Counties – Percentage Growth
Seven of the counties who experienced the most population growth, from a percentage perspective, are located in the South. In 2024, they accounted for 77.7% of the collective 2,306,155 Top 10’s population.
Texas was the state with the most counties, four. A standout among the Texas group, as well as all of the Southern counties in this group, is Montgomery County (seat: Conroe). The county’s population was estimated to be 620,567 in 2020 and 749,613, in 2024. Florida had two counties, with Osceola County (seat: Kissimmee) being the standout. The county’s population grew from 388,661 in 2020 to 468,058 in 2024. Georgia had two counties land in the Top 10: Dawson County (seat: Dawsonville) and Jackson County (seat: Jefferson). South Carolina had one county in the Top 10: Jasper County (seat: Ridgeland).
Top 10 Counties – Percentage Decline
This recent release from the Census Bureau also highlights the areas of the country that have lost population. And looking at that things from that angle muddies the narrative about the South’s population boom. Seven of the Top 10 American counties with the largest percentage declines in population are located in the South.
Albeit, the total population for all counties in this section is much smaller, than the number for those which experienced notable growth. In 2020, the ten counties were estimated to have 293,862 in total population while that number dropped to 268,778 in 2024. Southern counties accounted for 75% (197,660) of that 2024 total.
Alabama had one county in this Top 10: Dallas County (seat: Selma). Georgia had one county in this Top 10: Mitchell County (seat: Camilla). But the real story lies in the Magnolia State. Mississippi had five counties on the Top 10 list for largest percentage decline in population.
Washington County (seat: Greenville) – 44,928 (2020) -> 41,181 (2024)
Bolivar County (seat: Cleveland) – 30,986 (2020) -> 28,395 (2024)
Leflore County (seat: Greenwood) – 28,493 (2020) -> 26,157 (2024)
Sunflower County (seat: Indianola) – 25,816 (2020) -> 23,029 (2024)
Yazoo County (seat: Yazoo City) – 26,745 (2020) -> 23,024 (2024)
The three Non-South counties were located in Oregon, California and Indiana.
Top 10 Metropolitan Areas – Percentage Growth
Nine of the Top 10 U.S. Metro areas, in terms of percentage population growth, are located in the South. The total population for the Top 10 was 3,739,105 in 2020 and 4,254,592 in 2024. Eighty-two percent (3,494,061) of that 2024 total resided in Southern metro areas.
Florida was home to the most metro areas in the Top 10.
Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL – 725,036 (2020) -> 852,878 (2024)
Port St. Lucie, FL – 487,654 (2020) -> 556,336 (2024)
Ocala, FL – 375,902 (2020) -> 428,905 (2024)
Panama City-Panama City Beach, FL – 200,521 (2020) -> 226,221 (2024)
South Carolina had two metros land in the Top 10.
Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC – 351,038 (2020) -> 413,391 (2024)
Spartanburg, SC – 355,237 (2020) -> 395,934 (2024)
Texas was home to two metros in the Top 10.
Midland, TX – 175,587 (2020) -> 188,766 (2024)
Odessa, TX– 165,182 (2020) -> 170,022 (2024)
Alabama had one metro area land in the Top 10.
Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL – 231,767 (2020) -> 261,608 (2024)
The Provo-Orem-Ehi, UT region was the only metro outside of the South to crack the Top 10, in terms of percentage population growth.
Top 10 Micropolitan Areas – Percentage Growth
Six of the Top 10 micropolitan areas with the largest percentage population growth are located in the South.
North Carolina was home to two of these micropolitan areas.
Anderson Creek, NC – 133,556 (2020) -> 146,096 (2024)
Albemarle, NC – 62,502 (2020) -> 67,326 (2024)
Tennessee had two micropolitan areas in the Top 10.
McMinnville, TN – 40,950 (2020) -> 43,619 (2024)
Lewisburg, TN – 34,322 (2020) -> 37,847 (2024)
Florida and Georgia each had one micropolitan area land in the Top 10.
Jefferson, GA – 93,825 (2020) -> 75,918 (2024)
Clewiston, FL – 51,745 (2020) -> 59,262 (2024)
The remaining micropolitan areas who experienced significant population growth were located in North Dakota, Delaware, South Dakota and Idaho.
2025 has gotten off to a wild start and I’m just getting around to a lot of the writing projects I’ve had planned for a while. This one wasn’t planned but I think it’s a great starting point for the stories and analyses I want to release in the Third Coast Data section this year.